Gartner’s 2024 search forecast
On February 19, 2024, Gartner forecast that traditional search engine volume would drop 25% by 2026 because of AI chatbots and other virtual agents.
This was a forecast, not a measured result. It does not mean AI held 25% of the search market. Proven Cite has not verified whether the forecast was realized, so treat it as context rather than a planning number.
Read Gartner’s original announcementWhat Google says about AI search eligibility
Google’s guidance says established SEO practices remain relevant to AI Overviews and AI Mode. Pages need to be indexed and eligible for a search snippet. No special AI schema or additional technical requirement guarantees inclusion.
Read Google Search Central’s guidanceMeasure your own outcomes
- Record each tested question, provider, model, date, response, and source link.
- Repeat the same question and model to compare observations. Responses can vary without a content change.
- Track referral traffic, qualified leads, and purchases separately in analytics or your CRM. Attribution may be incomplete.
- Do not infer revenue lift from a readiness score or citation count.
How to judge the numbers you see
Many AI search figures circulate without a clear primary source. Before a number shapes your budget, check who published it, how it was measured, and whether it describes a forecast or an observed result. Missing evidence is not evidence of zero impact, but unsupported numbers should not guide investment decisions. That is why this page lists only a sourced forecast and points you to measuring your own results.
How we measure AI visibility